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We will accelerate the implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth and countercyclical adjustment

Some indicators fluctuated due to short-term factors, but the overall economy remained stable and improved, according to the October macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. Industrial, investment, consumption and other major indicators continue to upgrade the structure. Experts pointed out that the economic trend has "long-term foundation and short-term support", and we have the foundation, conditions and confidence to achieve the full-year target. It is worth mentioning that in the final quarter of the fourth quarter of steady growth, a package of important measures were introduced intensively, and the meeting held by the State Council for three consecutive days also released several positive signals.

It is reported that in the next step, the counter-cyclical adjustment policy will be further implemented. We will further boost infrastructure investment by lowering the minimum capital ratio, and push for the early commencement of major projects. We will also accelerate the construction of projects to strengthen weak links, and promote effective investment and industrial upgrading. We will increase support for the development of advanced manufacturing and emerging services industries, and further unlock the huge market potential. Experts pointed out that with the accelerated implementation of relevant policies and their continued effectiveness, the economy is expected to further stabilize and improve its quality next year, laying a solid foundation for the realization of all-round well-off society.

From January to October, the added value of industries above the specified size increased by 5.6% year-on-year, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.1%, and investment in fixed assets increased by 5.2%. "The cumulative growth rate of major economic sectors is still basically the same as that of the previous three quarters, indicating that the overall economic performance has not changed significantly and has maintained a steady performance." Liu aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference of the State Council new office on Sunday.

The economic structure continues to improve. In industry, the value added of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 8.3 percent and 6.5 percent year-on-year in October, respectively, 3.6 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points higher than that of industries of all sizes and above. In terms of consumption, China's online sales of physical goods grew 19.8 percent from January to October, 11.7 percentage points higher than the total retail sales of consumer goods in the same period. In terms of investment, investment in high-tech industries increased by 14.2% from January to October, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous three quarters.

"In terms of aggregate demand, there were bright spots in the performance of the troika. Fixed asset investment growth rate on a sequential basis; After deducting automobile consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 8.3 percent in nominal terms. Under the effect of a low base, both import and export data improved, and export performance showed signs of stabilizing and picking up. Lin zhiyuan, deputy director of the macroeconomic research center at xiamen university, told economic information daily.

Business confidence in the economy is also growing. "The expected index of manufacturing production activity and the expected index of non-manufacturing business activity both remained in a relatively high boom range. The decline in total planned investment in new projects started from January to October narrowed to about 4%, which is nearly 8 percentage points lower than the lowest point of the year. Business investment confidence is gradually recovering." Liu aihua said.

Liu aihua also pointed out that the next step should adhere to the bottom line thinking, adhere to the general tone of seek improvement in stability work, focus on the implementation of the existing policies, do a good job in policy coordination and linkage, enhance the resilience of economic development.

Since entering the fourth quarter, a series of measures to stabilize growth intensive. Three days of meetings at the State Council level alone have sent a number of positive signals. On December 12, economic experts and entrepreneurs put forward measures to make more effective use of macro-policy counter-cyclical regulation tools, strengthen support for the real economy, especially small, micro and private enterprises, optimize the use of local government special debt, and expand effective investment.

The standing committee of the State Council on Wednesday decided to lower the minimum capital ratio for some infrastructure projects. Projects in the field of infrastructure and other industries encouraged by the state may raise capital by issuing equity and equity financial instruments. The signals released at the symposium on the economic situation of some provinces and the guarantee of basic people's livelihood on April 14 included accelerating the construction of projects to strengthen weak links and promote effective investment and industrial upgrading. We will strengthen the support of new growth drivers for the economy and support the development of advanced manufacturing and emerging services.

Gao ruidong, chief macro analyst of guotai junan securities, told economic information daily that the current government has taken multiple measures to stabilize growth and constantly strengthen counter-cyclical regulation. For example, we will appropriately cut the interest rate of the medium-term lending facility (MLF) to lower the financing cost of the real economy. We will lower the capital ratio of some infrastructure projects, expand the ways of raising capital for projects that encourage development, further improve the efficiency of using fiscal funds, and meet the needs of diversified allocation of social funds.

"There is still room for counter-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy, which will further reduce financing costs, improve market liquidity and boost market confidence. The focus of fiscal policy will be on new infrastructure and advanced manufacturing, while continuing to vigorously support the development of the new economy and guide private investment to the information industry and high-end services." Zhang haibin, vice President of huambo new economic research institute, told economic information daily.

What about the future of the economy? "The short answer is, 'there is a foundation in the long run and a foundation in the short run. '" liu aihua said, "in the long run, we have accumulated a solid material foundation, improved infrastructure, a gradually complete industrial system, abundant human resources and high-quality talents, and the market size is also growing. In the short term, there is still a lot of support for the economy to continue to run smoothly. The potential of consumption has been released, the momentum of industrial upgrading has been accumulated, the vitality of opening up has been emerging, and the effects of policies have been evident. In the future, we have the foundation, conditions and confidence to meet the targets set for this year and maintain sound economic development.

Gao ruidong believes that fiscal policy will be more active, monetary policy will increase service to the real economy, further reduce corporate financing costs. At the same time, the government will continue to deepen reform, open wider to the outside world, promote consumption, stimulate investment in private enterprises, promote "six stability", and keep the economy running smoothly.

Zhang jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley huaxin securities, told economic information daily that with the optimization of medium - and long-term loan structure, Banks' support for supporting special debt projects will become an important factor to stabilize infrastructure investment. At present, targeted policy adjustments for special debt projects will also promote infrastructure to maintain a steady recovery. In addition, it is expected that in the future, policies will accelerate the cultivation of new drivers, that is, increase investment in the development of emerging industries, constantly promote industrial transformation, and further boost steady growth by increasing the contribution of new industries to economic development.

Source: economic information daily