Since this year, in the face of COVID test - 19 outbreak and the complexity of the situation at home and abroad, the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with comrade xi for the core, as a whole the epidemic prevention and control in our country and promoting economic and social development work, economy to realize good start, the main economic indicators are realized, shows the characteristics of different from previous years, Need to carry on objective, calm, dialectical, comprehensive analysis, accurate grasp the current economic situation.

Both to look at the year-on-year, but also to look at the month-on-month. Since the economic data in the first quarter are greatly affected by the base of the same period last year, the comparability with the past is not strong, so the analysis of the current economic situation should not only look at the same period of last year, to clarify the "level" of economic operation. At the same time, we should also look at the "potential" of economic operation through sequential data, and make clear the degree and level of economic recovery. For example, in the first quarter, total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 33.9% year on year, a record high, but the two-year average growth was 4.2%, less than 40% of that in the same period of 2019 and much lower than the pre-epidemic level. In month-on-month terms, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.86% from January to March, of which the year-on-year growth in March was 34.2%, 12.9% higher than that in March 2019, and the two-year average growth was 6.3%, with a month-on-month growth of 1.75%, indicating that the momentum of consumption recovery is accelerating. For another example, in the first quarter, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew 25.6% year on year, and the two-year average growth rate was 2.9%, the lowest in recent years. However, from January to March, the growth rate of fixed asset investment was 1.15%, 1.50% and 1.51% respectively, generally higher than the level of 1.37% in the fourth quarter of last year, indicating that the recovery of fixed asset investment is accelerating.

We need to look at both short-term and trend factors. There are many factors that affect economic performance, some of which are short-term and secondary, while others are major and long-term. The relatively high "appearance level" of China's first-quarter data is to some extent caused by the low base effect, the "substitution" effect of exports, and the "in-place New Year" policy effect, etc. These factors are staged and not sustainable. For example, in the first quarter, China's total import and export of goods grew by 29.2% year on year, and the two-year average growth rate was 10%, with the surplus hitting a record high. This is partly due to the fact that affected by the epidemic, enterprises in some countries have stopped production and a large number of orders from around the world have been transferred to China. With the gradual improvement of the global epidemic, the rapid growth of China's export is facing a downward trend. For another example, in the first quarter, China's industrial added value above designated size grew by 24.5% year-on-year and 2.01% month-on-month, and the two-year average growth rate reached 6.8%, the highest growth rate since 2015. This was partly caused by the "local Spring Festival" policy. But the most fundamental reason is that our country has the Chinese characteristic socialist system superiority, industrial supporting complete, strong resilience, took the lead in the world's major economies to control the epidemic situation, take the lead to achieve the economic growth, for this year's economic development to realize the "start" to lay a good foundation, these factors are the long term, is a solid support long-term positive trend of economic development in our country.

We should not only see the favorable conditions, but also analyze the existing problems and challenges in depth. On the one hand, positive factors are increasing in China's economic performance, production demand is recovering at a faster pace, market expectations are improving, innovation drivers are growing steadily, market vitality is being unleashed, and the internal driving force for economic growth is strengthening. On the other hand, we should also be aware that China's economic recovery is unbalanced, small and medium-sized enterprises are still facing difficulties in developing, employment pressure is still considerable, and risks and hidden dangers in fiscal, financial, industrial and supply chains and other areas are on the rise. At the same time, some serious structural and institutional problems hamper high-quality economic development. From the external environment, the global epidemic prevention and control has entered the second half of the year, but the situation is still complex and severe. The economic recovery of countries is not in step with each other. Rising inflation in major economies, policy changes in major countries and other factors may affect the stable operation of the global economy and financial markets, posing new risks and challenges to China. If these problems and challenges can not be well solved and dealt with, it is bound to affect the sustained recovery of China's economy.

We should see short-term changes in economic operation and grasp periodic features. We should strengthen our monitoring of economic performance, promptly identify emerging problems, trends, and potential problems, and learn from the weaknesses and weaknesses of the economy. We should grasp the general trend of development and look at the short-term operation from the perspective of the development stage. For example, China's economic growth in the first quarter reached a record high. This is not an "overheating" economy, nor will it lead to a new round of rapid growth. On the whole, China's economy is still in a period of recovery and transformation to a stage of high-quality development. This is a general trend that will not change because of short-term fluctuations in economic performance.

On the whole, China's economy is showing a steady recovery, strengthening and improving momentum. However, the foundation for sustained economic recovery is not yet solid, and there are still many destabilizing and uncertain factors in the domestic and international environment. In this regard, we need to keep to the bottom line, balance development and security, and guard against and defuse risks. We will continue to address both the symptoms and root causes of the problem and combine the strengths and weaknesses of the problem, fully implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, comprehensively boost consumption, and expand the space for investment. We will give high priority to structural adjustment, work hard to resolve some structural and institutional problems that hinder high-quality economic development, and lay a solid foundation for sustained and sound economic development.

Source: State-owned Assets and Administration Commission of the State Council